CBG analysis: Dead no more: First quarter alive with comics sales

No one ever really dies in comics ? and now the ?dead quarter,? when comics sales traditionally go into hibernation, isn?t dead any more, either. Retailers ordered at least a million more comic books in the first quarter of 2006 than in the first quarter of 2005, according to CBG?s analysis of the sales reports released by Diamond Comic Distributors on April 14.

?We?re at $89 million overall for the first three months of 2006, up 9% from the first quarter of 2005,? said John Jackson Miller, F+W Publications editorial director for collectibles. CBG?s chart analysis for March appears here.

Marvel reached a notable threshold in March, Miller said, placing 100 comics on Diamond?s Top 300 list. ?That?s a quantity we haven?t seen in many years,? he said, ?although as the list includes reordered comics, many are appearing for the second time. The period of highest volume for Marvel offerings would have been in the early 1990s, when it often had more than 120 titles in the market.

Miller is the compiler of the world?s largest collection of comics circulation figures, the CBG Standard Catalog of Comic Books (fourth edition now available at retail stores and here.). He and CBG also now have the largest repository of comics sales figures online, covering the entire era during which Marvel and DC have been exclusively distributed by Diamond. The archives can be found here.

Comics unit sales: The Top 300 comic books had retailer orders of 6.99 million copies in March 2006, 4% more than March 2005, which also had five shipping weeks. Retailers ordered 27,000 more comic books in March 2006.

For the first quarter of 2006, the Top 300 comic books had orders of 18.61 million units, 6% more than 2005?s total of 17.56 million units.

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Infinite Crisis #5?s sales of at least 201,800 copies led the field, representing significant growth from #4?s January sales of 182,600 copies. In addition to the book?s heat, Miller said, the March issue also benefited from both the generally stronger retail conditions of March relative to January and from its placement in the calendar. Infinite Crisis #4 shipped on January 18, meaning the January chart captured only two weeks of reorders; #5 shipped on March 1, meaning a whole month?s reorder activity appeared on the March charts. With #6 shipping April 5, the same phenomenon should recur in April?s charts.

The continuing phenomenon of ever more Marvel and DC issues in the Top 300 continues to push most new publishers off the Top 300 list. Exceptions were Tales of Alvin #1 from the Dabel Brothers, placing 282nd with 3,300 copies, and Full Cirkle #3, by the differently spelled Full Circle, which placed 286th with about 3,050 copies.

A comic book now needs to sell more than 2,600 copies to make the Top 300 chart, Miller said. ?That?s a higher threshold than we?ve seen in a long time. By contrast, in the ?bad old days? ? going back to March 2001, near the beginning of the revival ? you only needed to sell 800 copies to make the chart. You?d make the high 200s with 2,600 copies.?

That fact does not necessarily mean that independent titles are selling better, he cautioned ? only that there are enough high-volume titles from the heavy hitters to soak up spaces on the chart smaller titles once took.

Comics dollar sales: The Top 300 comic books had sales worth $21.51 million in March 2006, 11% more than March 2005?s total of $19.06 million.

For the first quarter of 2006, the Top 300 comics from each month have sold a combined $56.3 million, an increase of more than $6 million, or 13%, over the same period in the previous year.

Trade paperbacks : The Top 100 trade paperbacks and graphic novels reported by Diamond had orders worth $4.05 million at full retail in March 2006, a drop of 5% from the total in March 2005. Adding those to the Top 300 comics for the month yields $25.56 million, an increase of 9% over March 2005?s total of $23.35 million.

For the first three months of 2006, the Top 300 comics and the Top 100 trade paperbacks from each month had orders worth $67.34 million, an increase of 11% over the same period in 2005.

Exclusive: Diamond?s ?overall? sales: In the most inclusive category calculated by anyone in comics, CBG is able to estimate Diamond?s total sales for comics and trade paperbacks, including all those not in the Top 300/100 every month.

?Diamond publishes dollar market shares for its top 20 publishers across all comics, trade paperbacks, and magazines,? Miller said. ?Knowing the exact total orders of any publisher on that list right down to the oldest backlist item allows you to calculate Diamond?s total orders across these product groups.?

The March 2006 total was $34.8 million, which increases to $38.6 million, when Diamond?s United Kingdom orders are added. The figure is 10% over March 2005?s U.S. total of $31.58 million. Overall, the first quarter stands at $89 million, 9% more than last year?s total of $81.43 million.

CBG cautions that the ?overall? category overstates comics? actual performance to the extent that magazines that do not have comics content are included. The comics publishers? market shares would actually be slightly higher, if ancillary items were removed.

Market shares: Marvel again topped DC in Diamond?s reported overall unit and dollar market shares. Marvel hit a historical mark of sorts by placing 100 titles in the Top 300; that figure includes many reordered comics making the list for a second time, but it recalls the days of the mid-1990s when Marvel last had 100 monthly titles. DC had 83 comics in the list ? and Image?s 40 is the highest that publisher has produced in some time.

IDW actually took fourth in both units and dollars when only the Top 300 Comics are considered, owing to its slate of 15 comic books releasing in March versus Dark Horse?s 10. Dark Horse?s market share is nearly double that of IDW when trade paperbacks are added, however.

Price analysis: The average comic book on Diamond?s Top 300 list cost $3.15, up from $3.06 in March 2005.

The weighted average price ? that is, the cost of the average comic book Diamond sold ? was $3.08, way up from $2.84 last year. The average price of the comics that made the Top 25 was $3.06, also up from $2.70 in March 2005.

?The comics being offered haven?t gotten that much more expensive, but the comics people are buying the most have,? Miller said. An analysis of cover prices appears in Miller?s ?Longbox Manifesto? column in the upcoming Comics Buyer?s Guide #1619.

Historical context: Increasingly, Comics Buyer?s Guide is adding to its online library of past sales figures. The archive of all months posted from April 1997 to the present appears here.

Methodology: Diamond keys orders for all comics it lists sales for to Batman, with one ?order index point? being equal to 1% of that title?s
orders. Using actual Diamond final orders from titles accounting for more than 25% of Diamond?s Top 300, CBG determined that one point on Diamond?s order index was likely to equal 698 comic books ? with a 95% probability that the real figure was between 697 and 699.

For more information: Historical graphics for several categories tracked above appear in Comics & Games Retailer magazine. Also, check issues of Comics Buyer?s Guide and CBGXtra.com.

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5 Responses to CBG analysis: Dead no more: First quarter alive with comics sales

  1. PM says:

    When the time comes one wonders if 52 will take the top five during its entire run.

    That would certainly be a feat…

  2. johnmayo says:

    What is the ETA for the number of copies?

    I’m really curious how well Infinite Crisis #5 sold. It looks like it may have cracked 200,000 copies.

  3. John Jackson Miller says:

    ETA should be any day now. A human link in my information supply chain has been out of position; once I have the data, I should be able to get it online in a couple of hours.

    My thumbnail estimate for IC has it right near 200k, but I’ll need to get more details before I can say anything about things like overall industry sales.

  4. johnmayo says:

    That sounds about right. As of last month, Infinite Crisis #3 had done just under 200,000 once reorders were factored in. This series has been doing great. It will be very interesting to see if 52 does as well or not. Being weekly is a major strike against it in that regard.

  5. John Jackson Miller says:

    UPDATE: The final estimates are in the article above. Thanks for your patience!

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