CBG analysis: September puts trade on pace for $350 mil year

All-Star Batman?s second issue and a two-issue month for New Avengers and JLA helped the comics market close out the third quarter 5% above the same period in 2004, according to CBG?s analysis of the sales reports released by Diamond Comic Distributors.

?It was actually an off month compared with last September, which had one more shipping week,? said John Jackson Miller, editorial director of collectibles for F+W Publications and compiler of the world?s largest collection of comics circulation figures, the CBG Standard Catalog of Comic Books (fourth edition now available at retail stores and here). ?But it?s interesting to see that the gap pretty much disappears in some comparisons. The Top 300 Comics plus the Top 100 Trades sold almost exactly in September what they sold last September ? which, again, had an additional shipping week to do it in.

It?s a good sign that, despite monthly fluctuations, the market still seems headed in the right direction, Miller said. ?We?re up $18 millon in the overall category in the year-to-date ? which means 2005 may pass 2004?s annual sales during the first week of December. We?re on pace for $350 million in the direct market alone ? a number we haven?t seen since 1996 and probably first saw in 1991, the year of X-Men #1. That said, note that there would have been a lot more individual sales adding up to the totals in those years, given that prices have gone up and our total today includes far, far more trade paperbacks.?

CBG?s chart analysis for September 2005 appears here. For comparison, analysis of the same month last year appears here.

Comics unit sales: The Top 300 comic books had retailer orders of 6.74 million copies in September, 4% less than September 2004, which, again, had one more shipping week.

All-Star Batman #2 posted sales of 178,600 copies to easily lead the list. That is a 31% drop from the 261,000 copies the first issue sold two months ago. As a bimonthly, retailers may have had a somewhat easier job of gauging second-issue demand than they normally have on monthlies, Miller said. ?The third issue will absolutely reflect how well those 261,000 copies sold through ? although, of course, the first issue of title did also make the #1 spot as well in the retailer reports published in CBG and Comics and Games Retailer.?

Bakers #1 from Kyle Baker ranked as the top new publisher debut, landing in 226th place with 2,900 copies ordered.

For the first nine months of 2005, the Top 300 comics from each month have sold a combined 56.97 million copies, an increase of 4% over the same period in the previous year.

Comics dollar sales: The Top 300 comic books had sales worth $19.41 million in September, 3% less than September 2004.

For the first nine months of 2005, the Top 300 comics from each month have sold a combined $164.19 million, an increase of 4% over the same period in the previous year.

Trade paperbacks : The Top 100 trade paperbacks and graphic novels reported by Diamond had orders worth $3.89 million at full retail in September. Adding those to the Top 300 comics for the month yields $23.3 million, almost even with September 2004, even with its one more shipping week.

For the first nine months of 2005, the Top 300 comics and the Top 100 trade paperbacks from each month had orders worth $197.69 million, 6% over the same period in 2004.

Exclusive: Diamond?s ?overall? sales: In the most inclusive category calculated by anyone in comics, CBG is able to estimate Diamond?s total sales for comics and trade paperbacks, including all those not in the Top 300/100 every month.

?Diamond publishes dollar market shares for its top 20 publishers across all comics, trade paperbacks, and magazines,? Miller said. ?Knowing the exact total orders of any publisher on that list right down to the oldest backlist item allows you to calculate Diamond?s total orders across these product groups.?

The September 2005 total was $29.33 million, which increases to $31.91 million, when Diamond?s United Kingdom orders are added. The figure is 4% lower than that for September 2004. Overall, the last nine months stand at $259.3 million, almost 8% more than the same period in 2004.

CBG cautions that the ?overall? category overstates comics? actual performance to the extent that magazines that do not have comics content are included. The comics publishers? market shares would actually be slightly higher, if ancillary items were removed.

Market shares: Marvel led DC in Diamond?s reported overall unit and dollar market shares, although by only 2.6% in the dollar category. DC had an even 100 comics in the Top 300 versus Marvel?s 82.

Image led Dark Horse in all the narrower market share categories; in the ?overall? category where backlist trade paperbacks are added, Dark Horse springs forward to a four-to-three advantage.

Price analysis: The average comic book on Diamond?s Top 300 list cost $3.01, the exact same as in September 2004.

The weighted average price ? that is, the cost of the average comic book Diamond sold ? was $2.88, up from $2.85 last year.

The average price of the comics that made the Top 25 was $2.70.

Historical context: Increasingly, Comics Buyer?s Guide is constantly adding to its online library of past sales figures. Sales figures from this month in 1997, for example, can be found here.

The archive of all months posted to date appears here.

Methodology: Diamond keys orders for all comics it lists sales for to Batman, with one ?order index point? being equal to 1% of that title?s orders. Using actual Diamond final orders from titles accounting for more than 25% of Diamond?s Top 300, CBG determined that one point on Diamond?s order index was likely to equal 659 comic books ? with a 95% probability that the real figure was between 658 and 660.

For more information: Historical graphics for several categories tracked above appear in Comics & Games Retailer magazine. Also, check issues of Comics Buyer?s Guide and CBGXtra.com.

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One Response to CBG analysis: September puts trade on pace for $350 mil year

  1. Michael Tierney says:

    Hey John,

    I can see it in my stores. Sales are definitely on the upturn.

    I guess we’ve finally bottomed out and got our bounce going.

    The improvement in content has helped greatly. Pairing good writers with good artists on high profile titles is a formula you would have thought that the publishers would have figured out long ago.

    One shadow on this sunny picture that I will point out: Sales are growing, but in my market, the market itself isn’t growing. The increase is coming from customers who’ve dropped out over the years, and are now returning.

    So the industry is maximizing on its existing fan base.

    The base itself isn’t growing. No new customers to comics. But anyone who has had an interest in comics seems to be buying them now.

    That’s the view from my marketplace.

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